Overview
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Aggregate the diverse knowledge and insights of a large and varied group of participants, a phenomenon often referred to as the "wisdom of the crowd"
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Advantages Compared to Traditional Forecasting Methods | PMF, Real Income
- P2P, No Central House Edge
- All profits and losses flow between users. There is no operator baking in a guaranteed percentage of every pot.
- no central intermediary controls custody or pricing, regulators or single points of failure can’t shut the service down by targeting a house operator.
- Real-time Trades open before settle down
- You can enter, hedge, scale, or exit positions at any moment as news breaks—even seconds before deadline.
- Odds update continuously, often faster than traditional books that manually adjust lines.
- Profit from your knowledge/Information
- Prediction markets align incentives such that truthful information is rewarded. If you know something or have insight, you stand to profit by betting correctly. Likewise, if you provide an accurate outcome report (in oracle systems like Augur’s or UMA’s), you earn rewards
- Global Liquidity, 24/7 Access
- Deeper liquidity and more stable odds for major events, as traders from anywhere contribute to price discovery. Traditional prediction markets often had siloed user bases
- Global pool of traders at all hours. Liquidity isn’t fragmented by jurisdiction or time zone.
- Innovation in Market Types
- Scalar markets allow trading on the distribution of a numerical outcome (e.g. temperature, stock price) rather than just binary outcomes.
- Anti-Cycling, Insurance and Event Hedging
- Markets for natural disasters (hurricanes, earthquakes), pandemics, or commodity yields can allow those exposed to these risks to hedge.
- anyone can create or participate in such risk markets without going through traditional insurance underwriting
- DeFi Primitives
- Yield-bearing collateral could be used so that stakes earn interest until the market resolves, or markets could be integrated into DAO governance
- P2P, No Central House Edge
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Risks and Challenges
- Regulatory Uncertainty
- Prediction markets, especially on certain topics, often run afoul of gambling and financial laws. In the U.S., real-money betting on events like elections or sports is heavily regulated – considered either gambling (needing a state gambling license) or as binary options (which fall under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for event contracts). Polymarket, 2021, CFTC fined Polymarket $1.4 million
- U.S. regulatory environment is strict and uncertain, most decentralized prediction markets either geo-block U.S. IPs
- Europe is somewhat more fragmented, MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation) was passed, but MiCA primarily covers crypto-assets like stablecoins and service providers like exchanges. a binary option on an event, it might be considered a financial instrument under MIFID II (which would be problematic without licensing). On the other hand, if viewed as gambling, each EU country has its own rules.
- Misinformation and Market Manipulation
- using money not to profit from the event outcome, but to influence opinion. In a low-liquidity market, such tactics are easier since fewer counter-bets are needed to move the price.
- wash trading to inflate volume: in the run-up to the 2020 election, blockchain analysis suggested some Polymarket traders were trading with themselves to boost apparent activity, possibly to attract attention or earn liquidity rewards
- Oracle Manipulation and Failure
- Hack on the oracle’s governance rather than a hack of the smart contract: a user with large UMA token holdings managed to influence a governance vote on an outcome in their favo in 2025 on Polymarket
- contentious real-world events can pose challenges: if an outcome is not black-and-white, the oracle mechanism might get bogged down in disputes (consider a question like “Will X happen by date Y?” – if partial progress happened, some might argue it fulfilled the condition, others not)
- Regulatory Uncertainty
Polymarket
Election Effect
- Election 2020: 10.8M
- Election 2024: 3.6B
- Activity Drop Down(2024/12)
- 60% of the Volume is from Election Related on Nov
- DAU dropped 50% after Election 2024, now around 20~30K, WAU around 100K
- Volume and Transactions dropped 80% after Election 2024, Daily Volume is around 50M
- TVL also dropped 80% after Election 2024
- Open interest dropped 80%, remaining 100M
- Considering the unique user never participated in US Election is around 22.66%, the retention rate of Election is around 1/3, 1 of 3 user stayed to bet on Polymarket
- 60% of the Volume is from Election Related on Nov
- Activity is stable and back(2025/4)
- Non-Election Bets Dominate, occupy 56%
- User base is not continuously loss, which is stable, and many of them of returning users. DAU around 30K, WAU around 120K, MAU 320K.
- TVL is slightly increasing to 130M, Open Interest remains above 100M
- Non-Election Bets Dominate, occupy 56%
Operation Scope
- Politics is only one part business of Polymarkets
- Most of operation events are recurring, and would not end at once
- Prediction markets could expand its operation scope over time
Politics
- Global Election Trading: Ghana, Romania, Croatia, Ecuador, Poland
Crypto
- Price
- hedge or leverage trading
- After BTC hit 100K, the attention transferred to ETH.
Business & Economic
- Fed Decision: recurring events
- Mainly AI Model
- Universe
Pop Culture
- Eurovision Winner 2025: 58M Vol
Sports
- Sports is an ambiguous field, close to lottery, some overlap in business of gambling, Polymarket covering
- Basketball
- Baseball
- Football
- F1
- Chess
- Boxing
- Compared to Rollbit, the online gambling platform
- Casino
- Sports
- Crypto Futures
- The largest volume and open interest market now is Super Bowl Champion 2025, 800M. Compared to Election 2024, 3.5B
Product Mechanism
Overview
Markets
- Market Types
- CTF Exchange: Single multi-outcome markets present straightforward scenarios with multiple possible outcomes for a single question. For instance, “Biden drops out of presidential race?” supports two possible outcomes: Yes or No.
- NegRisk CFT Exchange: Mutually exclusive binary markets: break down complex scenarios into multiple yes/no questions, each focusing on a specific outcome. For instance, “Presidential Election Winner 2024” can be broken down into single questions, each for each candidate (”Will Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?” or “Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?”), each supporting two possible outcomes.
- Markets are created by Polymarket team
- Market is identified by Condition ID, derived from
- Oracle Address: UMA
- Question Hash
- Outcomes: 2 for Binary Market
| Name | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| condition_id | string | id of market which is also the CTF condition ID |
| question_id | string | question id of market which is also the CTF question ID which is used to derive the condition_id |
| tokens | Tokens | binary token pair for market |
| rewards | Rewards | rewards related data |
| minimum_order_size | string | minimum limit order size |
| minimum_tick_size | string | minimum tick size in units of implied probability (max price resolution) |
| description | string | market description |
| category | string | market category |
| end_date_iso | string | iso string of market end date |
| game_start_time | string | iso string of game start time which is used to trigger delay |
| question | string | question |
| market_slug | string | slug of market |
| min_incentive_size | string | minimum resting order size for incentive qualification |
| max_incentive_spread | string | max spread up to which orders are qualified for incentives (in cents) |
| active | boolean | boolean indicating whether market is active/live |
| closed | boolean | boolean indicating whether market is closed/open |
| seconds_delay | integer | seconds of match delay for in-game trading |
| icon | string | reference to market icon image |
| fpmm | string | address of associated fixed product market maker on Polygon network |
Price = Odds = Probability
- The inherent link between the price of a contract and the implied probability of an event occurring provides a valuable, real-time, and aggregated view of market sentiment.
- Shares of "Yes" and "No" is priced between $0~$1
- Price = Odds
- Generally, 1 : 2
- Means you bet 1 USD, could get 2 USD back, 100% return
- In Polymarket, 0.5
- Means you buy 2 shares at 0.5USD, total 1 USD, you could get 2 USD back, 100%
- Generally, 1 : 2
- Initial Price
- Market maker place limit order, when "Yes" and "No" limit price(e.g. 0.7 + 0.3 = 1) matches, set the market price
- Future Price
- If spread < $0.1: midpoint of the bid-ask spread
- If spread > $0.1: last traded price
Conditional Tokens Framework (CTF)
- Gnosis's Conditional Token Framework
- Share / Outcome: ERC1155 token is identified by Position ID
- Collection:
- Parent Collection ID: nonempty proper subset of a condition’s outcome slots which represents the sum total of all the contained slots’ payout values, the outcome subsets are sequenced by index, e.g. ["Yes", "No"]
- Collection ID: Parent Collection ID, Condition ID, and Index. e.g. 0 for "Yes"
- Position
- Position ID: Collection ID + Collateral Token Address(USDC Address)
- Collection:
- Orders: represented as signed typed structured data (EIP712)
FOK: A 'Fill-Or-Kill' order is an market order to buy shares that must be executed immediately in its entirety; otherwise, the entire order will be cancelled.GTC: A 'Good-Til-Cancelled' order is a limit order that is active until it is fulfilled or cancelled.GTD: A 'Good-Til-Day' order is a type of order that is active until its specified date (UTC seconds timestamp), unless it has already been fulfilled or cancelled. There is a security threshold of one minute: If the order needs to expire in 30 seconds the correct expiration value is: now + 1 miute + 30 seconds
CTF Exchange
- CLOB (Central Limit Order Book) | BLOB (Binary Limit Order Book), like CEX
- Off-chain matching/ordering services, Off-chain Operator is responsible for matching, ordering, and submitting matched trades to the underlying blockchain network for execution. Order placement and canellation can happen immediately off-chain
- On-chain settlement/execution happens
- Shares are backed by USDC, trading are between CTF ERC1155 assets and ERC20 PToken assets <=> ERC20
- Built-in DEX: Each Pair of "Yes" and "No" is equal to $1
- One side is maker, one side is taker
- 1
A+ 1A'= **1 `C A- ERC1155 outcome token, shares = tokens.A'- ERC1155 outcome token, complement ofA, shares = tokens.C- ERC20 collateral token.
- Three Scenarios
- Trading: Buy and Sell
A/A'- Transfer 50 token
Afrom userB intoCTFExchange - Transfer 25
Cfrom userA intoCTFExchange - Transfer 50 token
AfromCTFExchangeto userA - Transfer 25
CfromCTFExchangeto userB
- Transfer 50 token
- Mint: Buy
AandA'at same time and match as well- Transfer 25
Cfrom userB intoCTFExchange - Transfer 25
Cfrom userA intoCTFExchange - Mint 50 token sets (= 50 token
A+ 50 tokenA') - Transfer 50 token
AfromCTFExchangeto userA - Transfer 50 token
A'fromCTFExchangeto userB
- Transfer 25
- Merge: Sell
AandA'at same time and match as well- Transfer 50
A'from userB intoCTFExchange - Transfer 50
Afrom userA intoCTFExchange - Merge 50 token sets into 50
C(50 tokenA+ 50 tokenA'= 50C) - Transfer 25
CfromCTFExchangeto userA - Transfer 25
CfromCTFExchangeto userB
- Transfer 50
- Trading: Buy and Sell
- Polymarket Manager Address:
- CTF Exchange:
- Fixed product market makers (FPMMs). These FPMMs are deployed upon market creation using a factory contract. As such, each market has a unique FPMM deployment/address, to settle the token transition between outcome token and collateral token
- e.g.
- Election 2024 FPMM: FixedProductMarketMaker
- FixedProductMarketMakerFactory: Polymarket: Fixed Product Market Maker Factory
Proxy Wallet
Proxy Wallets – Polymarket Documentation
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1 of 1 multisig is deployed to Polygon which is controlled/owned by EOA
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Proxy wallet to execute transactions
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Transactions are relayed by relayers on the gas station network
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Three types of interaction wallets
- Initialization of a client that trades directly from an EOA
- client = ClobClient(host, key=key, chain_id=chain_id)
- Initialization of a client using a Polymarket Proxy associated with an Email/Magic account
- client = ClobClient(host, key=key, chain_id=chain_id, signature_type=1, funder=POLYMARKET_PROXY_ADDRESS)
- Initialization of a client using a Polymarket Proxy associated with a Browser Wallet(Metamask, Coinbase Wallet, etc)
- client = ClobClient(host, key=key, chain_id=chain_id, signature_type=2, funder=POLYMARKET_PROXY_ADDRESS)
- SafeProxyFactory: Polymarket : Safe Proxy Factory | PolygonScan
- Safe 1/1 multisig: Contract Address | PolygonScan
- Initialization of a client that trades directly from an EOA
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Key Authentication
- L1: Private Key Authentication: the highest level of authentication is via an account's Polygon private key
- L2: API Key Authentication: API key, secret and passphrase which are used solely to authenticate API requests made to Polymarket's CLOB
Prediction Efficiency and Accuracy
- Probability Accuracy
- Prediction markets are often more accurate than experts, polls, and pundits. Traders aggregate news, polls, and expert opinions, making informed trades. Their economic incentives ensure market prices adjust to reflect true odds as more knowledgeable participants join
- Market efficiency rely on capital efficiency, except in extreme cases, capital drives the market expectation
- In Reality: Polymarket Historical Accuracy and Bias
- Based on the expected vs actual outcomes, most events on Polymarket have historically been overpriced.
- We can see this because every single bucket, except the 95-100% bucket, resolves to "yes" less frequently than expected. The expected rate or "yes" resolutions should be roughly halfway between the top and bottom of the range of each bucket (e.g., the 0-5% bucket would be expected to resolve to "yes" about 2.5% of the time). As the below chart displays, these markets resolve to yes less frequently than expected, nearly across the board.
- The overestimation effect is more obvious before 12 hours, and more variant before 4 hours
- The overestimation effect is more obvious before 12 hours, and more variant before 4 hours
- We can see this because every single bucket, except the 95-100% bucket, resolves to "yes" less frequently than expected. The expected rate or "yes" resolutions should be roughly halfway between the top and bottom of the range of each bucket (e.g., the 0-5% bucket would be expected to resolve to "yes" about 2.5% of the time). As the below chart displays, these markets resolve to yes less frequently than expected, nearly across the board.
- A few potential causes of bias in prediction markets include:
- Acquiescence Bias - people tend to answer 'yes' more frequently when uncertain. This may lead Polymarket users to subconsciously revert to 'yes' bets rather than 'no' bets, as there is less mental friction.
- Herd Mentality - when a market is trending positively in the direction that a participant wants it to resolve in, they may be more likely to pile in, driving odds further.
- Low Liquidity - it's possible that accuracy in these markets could be lagging due to lack of liquidity. This data includes all of Polymarket's history, so older markets that were even less liquid could be driving down the averages. More research needed here.
- Degen Theory (aka mispricing of risk) - My personal hunch is that this space is full of degens who are more interested in long odds with potentially bigger returns, rather than small returns that are closer to a sure thing. This could lead bettors to gamble on lower probability markets that look to offer big returns, even though they're already overpriced.
- Based on the expected vs actual outcomes, most events on Polymarket have historically been overpriced.
- For Head-to-Head Sports
- In intuition, the accuracy is not so bad, and following the bets wins in most cases
- The biggest loss/wins happens in reverse cases
- In lagging situation, the probability of more powerful one is bigger
- In big lead situation, the probability align to 100%
- In reality
- increasing accuracy as time progresses. This trend becomes really pronounced once games have begun, as you'd expect
- Long odds markets (≤5% probability) are highly accurate and constitute a significant portion of Polymarket’s total markets. In contrast, such long odds are rarer in head-to-head sports markets, making Polymarket’s accuracy appear lower in this segment. Which means the accuracy of long odds markets are not so accurate in head-to-head markets.
- increasing accuracy as time progresses. This trend becomes really pronounced once games have begun, as you'd expect
- In intuition, the accuracy is not so bad, and following the bets wins in most cases
Oracle
- UMA
- UMA Optimistic Oracle: smart-contract based optimistic oracle: Optimistic Oracle | Verify
- Outcome Proposal with bond in USDC
- Get reward back or
- Dispute resolution, 2 hours
- Proposer wins
- Proposer receives their bond back plus half the disputer’s bond as a bounty. Disputer loses their bond.
- Disputer wins
- Disputer receives their bond back plus half the proposer’s bond as a bounty. Proposer loses their bond.
- Too Early
- This outcome is for proposals for which the underlying event has not yet happened. Eg the result of a sports match that is still ongoing. Disputer receives their bond back plus half the proposer’s bond as a bounty. Proposer loses their bond.
- Unknown/50-50
- This (rarely used) outcome is for events where none of the other options are appropriate. In this case the market price resolves to 50 yes and 50 no. Disputer receives their bond back plus half the proposer’s bond as a bounty. Proposer loses their bond.
- Proposer wins
- UMA FDV is only 150M, but now TVL and Open Interest is approaching 150M.
- Market is around 7M
- Punishment is 0.05% of the votes, 11.4M Vote yes
- Pyth: Coming soon
Business Model
- Don't charge fees for now: 0% fees on trades to attract users
- trading
- deposit and withdraw
- Subject to charge in Fees, preset the fee mechanism
- Fee Mechanism:
- Symmetric fees, Buy "Yes"@0.8 = Sell "No"@0.2
- usdcFee = baseRate * min(price, 1-price) * outcomeShareCount
- Case 1: If selling outcome tokens (base) for collateral (quote)
- feeQuote=baseRate∗min(price,1−price)∗size
- Case 2: If buying outcome tokens (base) with collateral (quote):
- feeBase=baseRate∗min(price,1−price)∗sizeprice
- Case 1: If selling outcome tokens (base) for collateral (quote)
- Fee Parameters:
| Volume Level | Maker Fee Base Rate (bps) | Taker Fee Base Rate (bps) |
|---|---|---|
| >0 USDC | 0 | 0 |
- Spread Arbitrage
Regulation
- Regulation of Future, Lottery, Gambling
A binary option is a financial exotic option in which the payoff is either some fixed monetary amount or nothing at all.The two main types of binary options are the cash-or-nothing binary option and the asset-or-nothing binary option. The former pays some fixed amount of cash if the option expires in-the-money while the latter pays the value of the underlying security. They are also called all-or-nothing options, digital options (more common in forex/interest rate markets), and fixed return options (FROs) (on the NYSE American).
While binary options may be used in theoretical asset pricing, they are prone to fraud in their applications and hence banned by regulators in many jurisdictions as a form of gambling. Many binary option outlets have been exposed as fraudulent. The U.S. FBI is investigating binary option scams throughout the world, and the Israeli police have tied the industry to criminal syndicates. The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has banned retail binary options trading. Australian Securities & Investments Commission (ASIC) considers binary options as a "high-risk" and "unpredictable" investment option, and finally also banned binary options sale to retail investors in 2021. - Wikipedia
USA
- 2022, CFTC, 1.4M fine, then restructured as an offshore platform
- 2024/10, Compliance Check
- Access Status
- Please regularly check the access status of your account with the ban-status/ endpoint. If the endpoint returns a value of true for
cert_required, proof of residence is required and failure to provide it within 14 days will result in a close only status. To certify you are not breaching ToS please send an email to ops@polymarket.com with your address, form of id (passport, license, or other) and proof of residence (recent utility bill, bank bill, phone bill). You will also be asked to sign and return a non-US certification in subsequent communications. Once complete, within 24 hours the cert required status should be market to false.
- Please regularly check the access status of your account with the ban-status/ endpoint. If the endpoint returns a value of true for
- Funny facts: over 50% of the traffic come from USA
France
- 2024/11/22, Polymarket blocked French traders, weeks after reports that the country's government was investigating the prediction markets juggernaut for gambling law compliance.
- The ban was not reflected in Polymarket's terms of service at press time, but VPN attempted to access the website from a French server and ran into a digital blockade.
Stats
- Growth depends on the new markets opening speed, after all, only Polymarket official could open the market
- Gender: Total 1.1M users, almost 72.15% Male users, and mostly 25~34 years old
- Average Bet Size: Users bet around $100 on average, most of them bet below $100
- Pareto principle: 20% winners, and 80% losers
- User Retention:
- After 6 months, 20%
- After 12 months, 10%
TGE and Opportunity
- Token Utility
- User Retention
- Resolution
Arbitrage Between Markets
Polymarket’s markets often have analogs on Betfair and Smarkets. These shared markets include many major political markets like the 2023 Turkish Presidential Election Winner and the 2024 United States Democratic/Republican Presidential Nominees. At the time of writing you can trade Joe Biden to win the Democratic Nominee for 78.7/81.3 on Smarkets, 75.8/76.9 on Betfair and 80.0/83.0 on Poymarket. Considering the current fee rates (2% of net winnings for Smarkets, 5% of net winnings for Betfair, 0% on Polymarket) and even at a time of very low volatility, there is at least some room for arbitrage. During more volatile times the spreads between venues can be sizable and thus quite profitable. Arb trading has never been easier anon.
Follow the Bets = Buy Bonds
Everyone loves a good longshot, especially casinos. The favourite-longshot bias is a well documented phenomenon where “on average, bettors tend to overvalue “longshots" and relatively undervalue favourites”. Taking the opposite side of these over-zealous bettors can prove mathematically favorable. Normally, it’s the house that capture this inefficiency, but on Polymarket there is no house. All trades happen peer to peer therefore traders looking to place longshot bets need counterparties. Lot’s of bets on Polymarket can be considered long shots, and taking the other side of these bets has been coined “buying bonds”. One of the most popular categories of “bonds” on Polymarket are Trump bonds. For example, at the time of writing you can buy 30,000 NO shares for Trump being President of the United states on July 31st 2023 (10 weeks away) for 97.5c each which figures to ~13% APR on USDC. This rate is more competitive than Aave and Compound. All hail Polymarket, the new yield protocol king…
ProductEvolution
- Self Owned Oracle
- Permissionless Markets Creation
- PolyLend: PolyLend: a peer-to-peer lending protocol allowing users to borrow USDC against conditional token positions, the underlying share type supported by Polymarket. A key feature is that no price oracles are required
- AI Agent Trading
Complementary
Omen
- World's first Polymarket trading hedge fund
KOHIN
- Kohin is the first decentralized insurance layer for prediction markets
- Users can easily purchase insurance for their bets, with premiums dynamically calculated based on risk metrics.
- Liquidity providers can add liquidity to the insurance pool and earn fees from the profits generated, making it a rewarding opportunity for those looking to participate in the decentralized insurance ecosystem.
- Integrate Azuro first, now Polymarket
Crypto Competitors
Opinion Protocol
- Base + Monad
- Advantage: permissionless market creation, not live yet
- Oracle:
- any participant can propose the required data by posting the specified bond; If no one challenges the proposal within a predefined challenge period (liveness window), the data is accepted optimistically as correct.
- The minimum required stake and the size of the randomly selected jury will increase in proportion with the dispute's value.
- Staking from USDC -> Opinion Token
- The largest pool is Fed decision in May, nearly 10M, 28M in Polymarket
Bettensor
- Bettensor by Nickel5, running SN57, SN48, SN63, and SN30 on Bittensor
- A sports prediction subnet running on Bittensor, intersection between sports predictions and machine learning
- Proof-of-Intelligence (PoI): Select for sports predictors that would have excellent real-world performance (PoS rewards for higher accuracy)
- Miners receive upcoming games and odds
- submit predictions as a simulated wager
- rewarded for correct predictions upon game conclusion.
- Tier System: 5 Tiers, e.g. Tier 3
- Scoring Window: 15 Days
- Minimum wager: $10,000 over 15 days
- Capacity: ~20% of all miners
- Incentive Share: 20% of total miner emissions
- Progression
- Miners, upon initial registration will always start in tier 1.
- To be promoted to a higher tier, they must meet the minimum requirements for that tier and be in the top 50% of miners in their current tier. If the next tier has open slots, they can be promoted immediately upon meeting the requirements.
- If higher tier is at capacity, must beat the score of the lowest miner in the next tier
- Score
- ROI (Return on Investment)
- Sortino Ratio
- CLV (Closing Line Value)
- Entropy System
- Hugging face: Nickel5HF (Nickel5)
- Stats:
- FDV: 46M
- 243 Active Subnet Miners
Azuro
- The Base Layer for Decentralized Prediction Markets
- It is important to note that Azuro is a protocol for applications to integrate with, not a platform for end users to transact on. Depending on how each app integrates Azuro, it's likely that there will be no “deposits” or “withdrawals” akin to traditional betting sites
- Each Azuro-powered app has their own distinct interface style and user experience flows.
- Azuro Stats
Monaco Protocol
- Open-sourced decentralized ecosystem for betting and prediction markets. Powering
- BetDex: Sports Betting, cap at 10K Volume
- Purebet: Sports Betting
True Market
- Base
- Raised 4M from NFT Sale, over 40% of the TRUE supply will be allocated to our Patrons upon TGE (no lock-ups)
- 15071 Oracle Patron NFTs, Vitalik Bought 400
- 59 Truth Seeker Patron NFTs
- Holders will be eligible to claim 2666.67 TRUE tokens per NFT
- Total 40.34M
- Oracle Patron NFTs Collection: floor price 0.28ETH, FDV 16.94M
- Uniswap Trading "Yes"/"No", and set to 1/0 at the end
- FDV after TGE only 3.8M, NFT drops to 0.0017ETH
- Biggest Volume is only 19.4K for the Canadian Election
Augur
- The Lituus Foundation is reviving Augur
- Product of the Forecast Foundation – is the earliest decentralized prediction market, notable for its pioneering fully-decentralized oracle. It demonstrated the viability of trustless event resolution and remains open-source and community-driven
- Augur’s v2 addressed some pain points by using DAI (to avoid crypto volatility for bettors) and improving the dispute process
- Augur Project · GitHub
- X
Limitless Exchange
- Daily Volume is only around 1M, 2% of Polymarket
Hedgehog Markets
built on the Solana blockchain, differentiates itself by focusing on delivering fast and low-cost trading experiences. It incorporates innovative features such as pooled liquidity models and the concept of no-loss markets to attract a broader user base
- Only 13 Markets
- Top Volume 10K
Nextmate.ai
- Event Prediction Market + Price Betting
- AI Agent -> Prediction market. Token, MEME, Events. The key model is Bet2Earn, and project give out tokens, and provide yield, user buy token to bet. Project get volume, Nextmate get revenue.
PredX
- Decentralized AI evaluation protocol
- Mainly price betting
- Volume is so poor, covering so many networks at first, cause the liquidity fragmentation, Solana, Ton, Base, BNB, Reddio
- predxai | Twitter | Linktree
Traditional Markets
PredictIt
- Election 2024 Volume is only 8M
Kalshi
- In 2022 the CFTC approved a platform called Kalshi in the U.S. to list some event contracts (like financial events) under strict rules. This shows a path where legally compliant event markets can exist, but they require heavy oversight and are not decentralized.
- Election 2024: Volume 500M, only 14% of Polymarket
- Current open market vol cap at 156M
- US users
- Buying KOLs to Attack Polymarket
Niche Markets
Hookt | BKRT
Hookt | Bet on relevant topics
- Hookt is the mobile version of BKRT
- UI like Tinder
Sweep
Sweep: Win money on your favorite streamers.
- Gaming Live Betting
- Too niche so far
Offmarket
Offmarket - prediction market for startups
- Prediction market for startup IPOs Valuation
Gambling: Rollbit
- Overlap of the Business: Sports Lottery
- Casino
- Sports
- Crypto Futures
- Lottery
- Once 100 BTC blocks(15-20 hours) have been mined, winners are credited & wagered RLB is returned, users could re-wager their tokens to enter the next round
- Lottery pool: 70% of the revenue source
- grows as players wager and is fully distributed among winners each round.
- 100 winners
- 1st: 20% of the lottery prize pool
- 2nd: 15% of the lottery prize pool
- 3rd: 10% of the lottery prize pool
- 4th: 8% of the lottery prize pool
- 6th: 6% of the lottery prize pool
- 7th: 5% of the lottery prize pool
- 8th: 4% of the lottery prize pool
- 9th: 3% of the lottery prize pool
- 10th: 2% of the lottery prize pool
- 11th to 100th: 0.333% to 0.111% (in increments of 0.00247%) of the lottery prize pool.
- Jackpot pool
- Grows as players wager
- There is a 10% chance that one lucky player will win
- Prize is between 2% and 100% of the Jackpot each draw. 0.1% chance that the entire Jackpot prize pool is won
- If the Jackpot is not won, a rollover happens!
- Overlap of the Persona
- Gender and Age
- Top Countries
- Gender and Age
- Buyback and burn: 20K/H, 480K/D, already burned 894M $RBL~100M USD
Reference
- learn.polymarket.com/docs/guides/
- Polymarket Mirror
- Polymarket Documentation
- Just a moment...
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- Gnosis Developer Portal Conditional Tokens · Create conditional tokens, a new asset class with richer informational capabilities that makes the outcome of any future event tradable.
- Polymarket - Activity and Volume
- Polymarket CLOB Stats
- Polymarket Historical Accuracy and Bias
- Prediction Markets and Betting
- Prediction Markets - Polymarket Azuro Drift