High Priority Tracks
Sports Rising
Polymarket has expanded its sports offerings significantly in 2025. Categories are dynamically updated based on seasons, with a strong emphasis on soccer (football), baseball, basketball, and emerging esports
key categories include:
- Soccer/Football Leagues: UEFA Champions League (UCL), Turkish Super Lig (TUR), Eredivisie (ERE), South American football (SUD), Major League Soccer (MLS), Libertadores (LIB), Mexican Liga MX (MEX).
- Baseball: Major League Baseball (MLB).
- Basketball: Women's National Basketball Association (WNBA).
- Esports: Dedicated props for games like League of Legends, CS:GO, and others.
The sports sector daily volume(the pink pie in the chart, 2025/09/17) is around 20M now, occupy 33.9% of the total daily volume, only secondary to Business sector, which Fed decision dominate recently. Get rid of this single market, sports sector daily volume would be the top sector
The reason why open interest of sports only rank 5th, and occupy 10.4%, which is 16m for 2025/09/17 is that sports are basically the recurring events. So the open interest won't accumulate like other sectors. The trading volume is a little bit higher than open interest, match the size.
And the top winner during the past months besides Fed cut all came from sports matches. Top 2 wins over 1m in each single match, top 10 all win over 500K.
These whales are willing to bet over 100k+, and only bet sports, and bet daily, although the final PnL is negative. Like the top 1 account, over 1m PnL is not the one he bet the largest, he bet at average 0.2 and got around 5x return. But he also lost 500k in one single match.
In sports, Polymarket's largest competitors comes from the traditional area, positioning itself as a challenger to traditional sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel. The U.S. total sports betting handle YTD through August 2025 is $90 billion, averaging $370 million daily across all operators. FanDuel as the market leader with 35-40% share, its 2024 handle was $50.8 billion (annual daily average ~$139 million); DraftKings holds 25-30% market share (inferred from 2024 data where it trailed FanDuel). So Polymarket's market is still below 10% of the whole marketplace.
| Metric | Polymarket Sports | DraftKings | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daily Volume (Handle) | ~$10-20M | ~$100-120M | ~$140-150M |
| Open Interest | ~$10-15M | Not reported (est. $1-3B liabilities) | Not reported (est. $2-5B liabilities) |
| 2025 YTD Context | below 10% | ~30% U.S. market share | ~40% U.S. market share |
Earnings
- The earnings prediction markets transform uncertainty around corporate earnings reports into tradable outcomes. Users can bet on metrics like earnings per share (EPS) beats, revenue figures, or even specific mentions during earnings calls. For now,
- EPS betting online, and no other metrics
- Earnings polymarkets are available on global platform, but not available to US traders.
- The innovation here is to decouple the price and earning betting, in traditional market, traders basically betting on the price, but have to consider whether the earnings is priced in or not. In some case, the earning hit the target, but the price fall down. Now, we can simply bet on the earning as long as our model is accurate.
- Current EPS estimate comes from Bloomberg consensus, which aggregates analyst forecasts for adjusted EPS, reflects the consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS.
- Bloomberg accuracy: recent Data from Q4 2024 Season, 76.5% of S&P 500 companies exceeded EPS consensus estimates, slightly below the post-pandemic average of 78.4%. Small-cap sectors like communications (72.7%) and staples (63.6%) had higher beat rates, while energy (17.7%) and utilities (33.3%) had the lowest.
- Polymarket prediction: the probability is above 50%. The full list below, the average beat probability is 72.46%
| Date | Company | Beat Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Sept 17 | GIS | 83% |
| Sept 17 | BLSH | 60% |
| Sept 18 | FDS | 71% |
| Sept 18 | FDX | 74% |
| Sept 24 | CTAS | 80% |
| Sept 24 | MU | 82% |
| Sept 24 | MLKN | 64% |
| Sept 25 | KMX | 65% |
| Sept 25 | JBL | 84% |
| Sept 25 | ACN | 67% |
| Sept 25 | COST | 77% |
| Sept 25 | CNXC | 64% |
| Sept 29 | PRGS | 71% |
- Partnership and integration with Stocktwits, which has 10M users in community, the foreign version of Snowball.
- You can easily check the past earnings records and corresponding estimates before. Like GIS, the last 5 quarters earnings all hit the target.
- The integration is not finished yet, the polls results has obviously bias compared to the real prediction market results, and didn't show the accurate stats from Polymarket.
- Stocktwits acts as the entry point for traffic, redirect users to Polymarket to bet.
Crypto and Chainlink Integration
Compared to sports, crypto is the a actively trading sector, but it could also accumulate open interest, because it has different timeframe markets.
Price prediction of BTC and ETH for the end of 2025 combined has over 10M open interest. For BTC single month price target could have over 2M open interest
The shorter timeframe could activate the daily volume, and also a killing feature for those crypto competitors, which previously focus on the token price movements. And Polymarket launch the 15 Min token prediction squeeze the market. Other competitor has to shorter the timeframe, but also grow its own traders community.
The partnership with Chainlink is the first step to go into the 15 Min time frame. 15 Min markets price is according to Chainlink data stream BTC/USD, ETH/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets. BTC and ETH is only 2 available markets now. Chainlink Data Streams supports sub-second data resolution for latency-sensitive use cases by retrieving data only when needed, has around 300 entries. So far, only 15 Min price prediction's resolution source comes from chainlink, other timeframe still use Binance BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title, and the resolver is still UMA, not switched to Chainlink yet. If Polymarket would like to shorter the timeframe, and increase the gambling frequency, it could testify the resolve time and price latency in 15 Min markets. And 15 Min so far is very competitive in the market, the other runner like limitless still constrained in hourly. markets.
Breaking News
Polymarket launched its "Breaking News" feature, which serves as the platform's dedicated news sector by aggregating and highlighting the most significant market movements as real-time news indicators, on August 11, 2025.
The priority of New is pretty high in the tracks and strategy, but actually it is a accurate track, it contains different events from different, most of them come from politics, economics, and culture. From the perspective of strategy, breaking news of the traffic entries, the essence is the same like Pump.fun, the key difference is that Pump.fun tokenize the hot spot in the market, Polymarket create the market, but both invite users to bet on the market.
And Polymarket has four affiliate X accounts to expand the exposure in the market, of which it has only 8 affiliate account totally. Polymarket appears as the central entity, using these accounts to amplify its news sector by turning market data into shareable news. This setup helps Polymarket compete with traditional media by leveraging crowd-sourced predictions for "tomorrow's news today."
graph TB
B["Polymarket Central Platform"]
A["@rawsalerts"]
C["@NewsWire_US"]
D["@PolymarketIntel"]
E["@polymarketinfo"]
A -->|Affiliate| B
B -->|Affiliate| C
D -.->|Referral| B
B -.->|Branded| E
style B fill:#007AFF,stroke:#005BBB,stroke-width:2px
style A fill:#F2F2F7,stroke:#C7C7CC
style C fill:#F2F2F7,stroke:#C7C7CC
style D fill:#F2F2F7,stroke:#C7C7CC
style E fill:#F2F2F7,stroke:#C7C7CC
- @rawsalerts(R A W S A L E R T S): This account acts as a rapid-response news broadcaster, specializing in "groundbreaking events" with fast, concise alerts on major incidents like emergencies, political developments, or viral stories. It has a sensational, urgent tone (e.g., posts like "So is the View gonna be cancelled soon? ") and focuses on U.S.-centric breaking news. With over 1.26 million followers, it's one of the larger accounts in this group, emphasizing speed and accuracy to keep users informed ahead of traditional media.
- @NewsWire_US(NewsWire): Positioned as a "U.S. and world news aggregator," this account compiles and shares aggregated headlines from various sources, covering politics, elections, and global events. With about 106,000 followers, its content often includes links to betting on related topics, blending news dissemination with promotional elements for prediction markets.
- @PolymarketIntel(Polymarket Intel): This is a geopolitical news hub with a focus on "breaking news & geopolitical insights from across the globe," often covering conflicts, international relations, and military updates (e.g., Ukraine-Russia developments, drone strikes, or diplomatic pacts). It has an analytical, insight-driven persona, with posts including videos, images, and quick analyses. With over 813,000 followers, it emphasizes global awareness and notifications for real-time intel. Joined in February 2022, it's heavily oriented toward high-stakes world events.
- @polymarketinfo(The Oracle by Polymarket): Functioning as an "oracle" for predictive insights, this account shares "news & views from the World's Largest Prediction Market," including newsletters, podcasts, and probability-based commentary on topics like migration, U.S. foreign policy (e.g., Iran strikes), tech bans, and cultural trends. It has a prophetic, market-driven persona, focusing on forward-looking analyses tied to betting odds. With around 2,200 followers, it's the smallest and newest (joined December 2024), acting as a direct extension of prediction market narratives.
Polymarket Builders GANG
Builders Affiliates
Besides the previous mentioned four accounts of News matrix, the Polymarket GANG are distributed around one AI agent account called @AskPolymarket, one developer community called @PolymarketBuild, the other one is the trades community called @PolymarketTrade.
Polymarket Builders was created in September, aligning with the launch of this initiative, to get rid of the confusion when some account are affiliated to the main account of Polymarket before, like Polyfactual. Since September 11, 2025, Polymarket Builders is highly focused on promoting collaborations, with posts often using the format "Polymarket x Project" to announce partnerships, and then add affiliate under its account.
Polymarket Builders program is designed to curate and support a selective ecosystem of community-driven projects that enhance Polymarket's platform. Once announcement or attached as the affiliate account, the price always surge.
| Project Name | X Handle | Description | Category | Polymarket Builders Affiliate | Polymarket Interaction | Token | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket Analytics | @poly_data | Data on all Polymarket traders, markets, positions, and trades. | Dashboard | Yes | Built by Polymarket Data Engineer | Most likely No Token | The most comprehensive analytic platform in the ecosystem |
| PredictFolio | @PredictFolio | Analyze, compare, and track users portfolio on Polymarket |
Dashboard | Yes | Nope | Not Yet | Start, the basic portfolio function is similar to Polymarket Analytics |
| HashDive | @hash_dive | Analytics, with a special focus on Smart Scores. | Dashboard, Insights | Yes | None | May not launch a token | Complicated score system to deep dive |
| Berry | @berryinvesting | App for tokenized stocks and prediction markets starting from $1. | Trading App | Yes | None | Most likely No Token | Moonshot App for Polymarket |
| fireplace | @fireplacegg | Social betting on news events with friends. | Trading App | Yes | None | May not launch a token | Social app for both Polymarket and Kalshi |
| okbet | @tryokbet | First Telegram bot for prediction markets, enabling bets anywhere. | Telegram Trading Bot | Yes | None | 8biqsLDiRPaPM11S42zKtNaC3WWKF64PNoPG9htzy99n | One of the earliest trading bot for both Polymarket and Kalshi |
| Betmoar | @betmoardotfun | Alternative trading frontend, dashboard | Trading Frontend | Yes | Prediction Arc X Space Series | Not Yet, 100% Launch Token | Basic function works, and fork almost every function, Axiom for Polymarket |
| Sportstensor | @sportstensor | Enhances sports prediction markets with incentive structures and collective intelligence. | AI Prediction | Yes | None | SN41 | MC 13M, FDV 110M, 3x since affiliate attatched |
| Polyfactual | @polyfactual | Weekly livestreams, Building liquidity infra & tooling | AI Insurance | Yes | Main Account Affiliate Before | FfixAeHevSKBZWoXPTbLk4U4X9piqvzGKvQaFo3cpump | Controversial project, left enough time before beta launch |
| Polysights | @Polysights | AI-powered analytics | Dashboard, Insights | Yes | None | May not launch a token | Provide some insights, usefully analytics |
| Stand | @StandDOTtrade | Advanced trading terminal with live feeds and notifications. | Trading Frontend | Yes | None | May not launch a token | Axiom for Polymarket, trading driven |
| Nevua Markets | @NevuaMarkets | Live watchlists with real-time alerts for Polymarket; winner of first Builders cohort. | Alpha Bot | Yes | None | May not launch a token | Use tool to get alerts with keywords |
| PolyAlertHub | @PolyAlertHub | real-time trader & whale tracking, price alerts, actionable trader, market insights, and portfolio analysis. | Alpha Bot | Yes | None | May not launch a token | Out of operation, started pretty early |
| Aura | @auradotmoney | Sports, Politics, Crypto Perps, RWA Perps | Trading App | Yes | Prediction Arc X Space Series | May not launch a token | Product launch soon, may aggregate Polymarket and Hyperliquid |
| Predictify | @Predictifybot | SocialFi + DeFi layer for prediction markets; building advanced web terminal. | Telegram Trading Bot | Yes | None | Not Yet | Basic trading bot feature, no token is the highlight |
| Pentagon Pizza Watch | @pizzintwatch | analyzing publicly available data for insights | Insights | Yes | Prediction Arc X Space Series | FCPMdpvwxtWBvgDDsPuBb6wyf41ik2gtPqNN9jWSBAGS | One of the earliest get affiliated, but the product is not that good |
| Compose | @withcompose | Framework for hybrid onchain/offchain apps; powers fast Polymarket features. | Infra | Yes | Main Account Retweet | Most likely No Token | Tech partner, Polymarket uses Compose to automatically create and resolve markets in seconds |
Polyfactual
- The biggest market event is the affiliate attached and then attached, then became the affiliate of Polymarket Builders
- Rumors that same team of PolyAgent, which also launched a token
- FgHpSsku7asGyTThooDmkKwmzy24ucUeyBrW9kLqpump
- And the telegram group have Chinese channel, and lost of Chinese KOL on it.
- Team: Jon Lourie
- MIT
- Graduate of the Bitcoin Startup Lab AI Accelerator and OnePiece Labs
- Product:
- PROJECT X
- Beta Launch: NOVEMBER 26, 2025
- truth-backed token launches—think pump.fun, but powered by verifiable truth rather than pure speculation. Each token is tied to real-world outcomes on existing prediction markets.
- Stake at least 100,000 POLYFACTS by September 12 (23:59 UTC).
- Hold that stake continuously from September 12 through November 26 (beta launch).
- Eligibility is verified only against the wallet address you submit below. If you change wallets, submit a new entry before the deadline.
- PROJECT Y
- cross-platform arbitrage bot finds pricing inefficiencies between platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, exploiting thin liquidity to generate consistent alpha.
- PROJECT X
- Live streamer for Polymarket events and news on Pump.fun
- Already earned over 331K on streaming
Polysights
- Team: Justin
- University of Waterloo
- Chinese team
- Polysights Intern
- Insider Finder: pretty helpful, significant trades from rookie wallets
- But the subscription pricing is pretty expensive
| Features | Basic | Standard | Premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | Free | 0.1 ETH | 1.5 ETH |
| Live Polymarket Data | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Standard Metrics | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Advanced Metrics | - | ✓ | ✓ |
| Visualizations | - | ✓ | ✓ |
| Telegram Bot | - | ✓ | ✓ |
| AI Summarization | - | ✓ | ✓ |
| Predictive Analytics | - | - | ✓ |
| Arbitrage Opportunities | - | - | ✓ |
| AI Agents | - | - | ✓ |
Potential Candidates
| Project Name | X Handle | Description | Category | Polymarket Builders Affiliate | Polymarket Interaction | Token |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polycule | @polycule_bot | Copy trading bot | Telegram Trading Bot | No | Followed by Shayne | J27UYHX5oeaG1YbUGQc8BmJySXDjNWChdGB2Pi2TMDAq |
| Flipr | @fliprbot | Defi layer for prediction markets. leverage, lending, and trading directly on x. | Trading Frontend | No | None | JCBKQBPvnjr7emdQGCNM8wtE8AZjyvJgh7JMvkfYxypm |
| rainmaker | @rainmakerdotfun | AI trading agents for Prediction Markets | Trading Bot | No | None | 4W7cM6SUuqhv9jp2t3jfmonXzNbDsJt5PCWqt7w1Axa2 |
| Polyagent | @trypolysagent | AI powered insights | Insights | No | None | FgHpSsku7asGyTThooDmkKwmzy24ucUeyBrW9kLqpump |
Polymarket Traders GANG
| Trader Name | Trading Style | Focusing Sector |
|---|---|---|
| 50-Pence (@polyint) | Opportunistic, event-driven with analysis of resolutions and disputes | Politics (elections, policies) |
| Erasmus | Data-driven, tracking polls, campaigns, and public opinion | Politics (US politics) |
| HyperLiquid0xb | Quantitative modeling, quick reactions to news (e.g., injuries/lineups) | Sports (baseball) |
| 1j59y6nk | Passion-driven, deep knowledge of teams/players under pressure | Sports (baseball, football) |
| WindWalk3 | High-conviction, large capital commitments on undervalued outcomes | Politics (health policies, RFK-related) |
| HaileyWelsh | Sharp money, high-value trades identifying winners | Crypto (price predictions) |
| abeautifulmind | Consistent high-stakes wins, speed/information edges | Sports (NBA playoffs) |
| Axios | Fast reactions to news and mentions in speeches/events | Politics (mention markets) |
| Joe-Biden | Specialized in major events, spotting mispriced outcomes | Sports (Super Bowl, championships) |
| Bama124 | Observes campaigns, debates, and voter moods for timing | Politics |